Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 2.338644 2.477708 2.629102 2.807848 3.015449 3.252054 3.546884
2025-08-03 2.200885 2.373023 2.568205 2.809963 3.107647 3.471700 3.967806
2025-08-10 2.066273 2.248327 2.459253 2.727500 3.069115 3.505244 4.135531
2025-08-17 1.991816 2.183977 2.410723 2.705788 3.093088 3.607808 4.396204
2025-08-24 1.933700 2.132944 2.371457 2.687609 3.113063 3.698251 4.642847
2025-08-31 1.887043 2.091680 2.339578 2.673296 3.132108 3.782676 4.885303
2025-09-07 1.861785 2.074192 2.334721 2.691266 3.192996 3.929087 5.250492
2025-09-14 1.794150 2.000645 2.254486 2.602910 3.095298 3.822280 5.141843
2025-09-21 1.765485 1.974573 2.233503 2.592454 3.107034 3.883432 5.348274
2025-09-28 1.724558 1.931374 2.188337 2.546156 3.062471 3.849333 5.361454
2025-10-05 1.726959 1.942712 2.213767 2.596979 3.162475 4.055178 5.889984
2025-10-12 1.738797 1.965892 2.254808 2.670482 3.300340 4.338472 6.669923
2025-10-19 1.720527 1.950456 2.244959 2.672717 3.330464 4.441632 7.076180
2025-10-26 1.704391 1.936976 2.236762 2.676100 3.361164 4.546652 7.518418
2025-11-02 1.661391 1.887190 2.177870 2.603115 3.264376 4.403195 7.225764
2025-11-09 1.640360 1.865726 2.156806 2.584646 3.254894 4.424206 7.413169
2025-11-16 1.621663 1.846790 2.138494 2.569226 3.248944 4.450131 7.619260
2025-11-23 1.605217 1.830365 2.123032 2.557186 3.247378 4.483242 7.854612
2025-11-30 1.600192 1.828721 2.127482 2.574358 3.294321 4.615134 8.458002
2025-12-07 1.561433 1.781635 2.068363 2.494760 3.175319 4.402689 7.813794
2025-12-14 1.548681 1.768952 2.056543 2.485899 3.175515 4.433563 8.038267
2025-12-21 1.524843 1.741169 2.023380 2.444206 3.118834 4.345257 7.826587
2025-12-28 1.532810 1.755745 2.048911 2.491206 3.213874 4.574751 8.839066